Mexican Immigration to the United States: the Right Trend for the Wrong Reasons?

The New York Times published on July 6, 2011, an article titled “Better Lives for Mexicans Cut Allure of Going Wrong.” The main argument is that illegal immigration to the United States is going down in the last couple of years in comparison to a growing trend registered in 2000-2005. The reporter states that expanding economic and educational opportunities, rising border crime and shrinking families are important explanatory factors. These factors are as important as “economic slowdowns or immigrant crackdowns in the United States.”

The author quotes Professor D. Massey (Princeton University) saying that “for the first time in 60 years, the net traffic has gone to zero and is probably a little bit negative.” The reporter uses the example of the Orozco family in Arandas, Jalisco, to make his point, and quotes researchers from the University of California San Diego to show the wage and quality of life progress for the Jalisco worker in Mexico.

On July 12 in Zacatecas, the Mexican President, Felipe Calderón, pointed out to this article, along with a similar one in The Economist, as an attestation that this diminishing trend of Mexican emigration towards the United States was led by the uprising generation of job opportunities in Mexico and its economic growth, among other factors.

I certainly agree with the reasons of this diminishing emigration trend, although I would not give the same weight to all the different variables that the reporter mentions in the article. And certainly, I would not base my conclusions in the study of only one Jalisco family in Mexico. That makes no sense at all.

I would say that the main factor that is upholding the diminishing emigration trend is the U.S. economy downturn and the increasing anti immigrant laws in U.S. states. Since 2007 the U.S. is not doing OK in job creation numbers, and that is currently affecting job opportunities for illegal and legal immigrants. Focusing on two thirds of immigrant jobs, the illegal ones for the Mexican case, whenever there is a lack of job opportunities, immigrants try to find jobs in the same city or region, then they move from the original place to another city or region looking for a job, then they consider going back to their places of origin. This centrifugal emigration caused by a weak U.S. economy is generally financed by the savings of the immigrant, the Mexican family´s little capital that could be send to the immigrant, and little temporary jobs as emigration takes place, or a combination of all of the above.

In the meantime, (during the last four years, this is) as difficulties arise trying to find jobs in the U.S., immigrants send back home a clear message: “Stop coming, it is difficult to find jobs here, stay back home for the moment.” This process takes time and the results are clearly lagged, that is why we see a diminishing trend of Mexican emigrants toward the U.S. until 2010-2011. Indeed, this trend is bad news for the recovery of the U.S. economy.

The hallucinating statement that Mexicans are staying home because things are getting better from a microeconomic standpoint is just crazy stuff. Although from a macroeconomic perspective Mexico is a good place to invest, from a microeconomic standpoint the case of the Orozco family is just a nice, interesting, and even cute case study, non representative of the Mexican reality. If the reporter goes to other selected locations in Mexico, he would find other happy stories; but in doing serious research he would realize that Mexicans stay home because they have little or no choice.

Some days ago, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography released data that confirm that between 2006 and 2010 the average family income in Mexico has gone down in 13.7%. This means that the poorer becomes the poorest, the former poorest go starving, and that an important share of rich guys in this country is taking their money abroad. The justice system is a total mess, corruption is rampant all over the place, democracy is in great danger, and more than 40,000 death have become the historical legacy of El Presidente Calderón.

All this also means that as soon as the economic downturn in the U.S. is reversed, chances are very high that Mexican immigration towards the U.S. will go back to their 2000-2005 levels, although it is important to pay attention to the relationship between capital and labor in marginal terms. In certain Mexican regions, mostly because of former high levels of emigration and because of war dynamics, the shortage of labor points out to higher levels of income to fulfill the demand for labor, although the narco-lords are indeed offering competitive wages in these regions for relatively non skilled jobs. In any instance, the New York Times should be more careful in disseminating this type of poorly-backed information.

Mexican State Federations in the U.S.: The Basics

Some researchers tend to make little or no difference at all between Home Town Associations (HTAs) and State Federations (SFs) when addressing the organization of Mexican immigrants in the United States. The only aspect in which they both are similar is that they can be considered transnational organizations. They are “here and there at the same time,” and that’s pretty much it.

A Home State Association (HTA) is a group of immigrants who get together with a common purpose or activity which is highly related to their place or town of origin: they can get together to send money back home to build a road or to rebuild a school or the local church; they can also send money to participate in a 3X1 Program or they can get together to see how they can improve their lives locally, in the host society. The most important characteristic is of a HTA is that all the members of the organization come from the same town. HTAs may or may not be political in their activities.

State Federations generally group several HTAs from the same state in Mexico. Their activity is highly political, even if some of them assert that they do not do politics. A State Federation ideally groups all the HTAs of their respective state, but this does not happen all the time. The natural field of political action of a SF is the relationship between local and state host governments and local and state home governments, plus the Mexican Consulate. Indeed, most State Federations were created under the initiative of the Mexican Consulates during the 1990s and early 2010s; although there are SFs that have existed without the explicit recognition of the Mexican Consulate, however, these are more the exception than the rule.

In some consular circumscriptions there are two State Federations, from the same state in Mexico, officially accredited by the Mexican Consulate. This has led to the local Mexican leadership to point the finger at the face of the Mexican Consulate for trying to divide the community, but it has also led to a relatively sane competition between different SFs from the same state to address in a more efficient way the issues of their constituencies. After almost 20 years of regular existence of SFs in the political arena of Mexican organizations in the U.S., State Federations have become important monopoly-type power brokers between state governments in Mexico and local governments in the U.S., although a high level of dependence and coordination with the Mexican Consulate still is a dominant tone in their actions.

The relationship between SFs and their local constituency generally is characterized by a strong lack of representativeness. Some SFs affirm that they represent all the HTAs of their respective states, and this is not accurate. Some SFs also state that they do represent all the individuals from a single state, whereas most of the individuals have not heard about such federation. It is easier for Mexican immigrants to know about their respective HTA than their respective State Federation. Even worst, there are researchers that report that there are federations that represent all the Mexican State Federations in the U.S. This is not true; as of today, there is not such an organization.

Although there are some aspects in which the relationship between the SFs and their local constituency tends to improve, for good or for bad. If an HTA wants to get resources from the federal government through a 3X1 Program, the HTA must obtain the recommendation of the SF to start the process. No recommendation, no access to the process. This has led the HTAs to rethink their relationship with their respective SFs and has led to the politicization of the process.

Regarding the relationship between the State Federations and their respective home state governments we have an incredible rich field of research on the politicization process of transnational organizations. Some State Federations tend to have a love/hate relationship with their state government (Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca); others act more like a representative trade office of their state (Guanajuato); others struggle to become a real actor to the eyes of their state government (Hidalgo); others are formed based on the Klan rationality of family grouping (Durango); others become a leading role of a mutually beneficial relationship between state government and State Federation (Zacatecas); and others become a little bit of ‘all of the above’ (Jalisco); etc. Here the only sure thing is that a continuous changing political context “here and there” definitely guarantees that a State Federation of a specific state in Mexico will never remain the same in terms of their political activities and status in both sides of the border. They are evolving, all the time.

For the young researcher, the best way to start doing research on the matter (HTAs or SFs or both) is, first, to take a look to the webpage of the Institute of Mexicans Abroad (IME) and gather all the information you can and become familiar with terms, concepts and reports, and the region that you are interested in. Then go to the Mexican Consulate and make an appointment with the representative of the Institute of Mexicans Abroad. Generally he/she will be very helpful in addressing your questions. If this does not work or if you require additional information, my best guess is to contact directly the person in charge of the research and analysis unit at the IME, Elisa Diaz Gras ediazg@sre.gob.mx. An incredibly efficient lady, who shall be able to assist anybody with reasonable research questions.